Sydney’s run of unseasonably mild weather is likely to extend into early next week, placing the city on course for one of its warmest Junes on record.
With the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting Sydney will reach 20 degrees or warmer for the next three days, this June is likely to rank at least the city’s fourth warmest, said Brett Dutschke, senior meteorologist with Weatherzone.
A cold front arriving on Tuesday will likely disrupt the warm spell long enough to keep the average maximum below the record 20.3 degrees set in 1957. So far this month, the average top has been 19.6 degrees.
“The colder days from Tuesday to Thursday next week will probably be just enough to spoil the record warm month attempt,” Mr Dutschke said.
Sydney is in the midst of its warmest 12 months since records started in 1855. The past year has included the warmest winter, spring and autumn. July, September and May set monthly highs and several other months ran close.
The likelihood of an El Nino weather pattern forming in the Pacific raises the odds for relatively warm and dry months to come for most of eastern Australia, climatologists say.
With Wednesday peaking at 20.4 degrees, the city has already posted seven days of at least 20 degrees for the month, or more than double the average of three such days.
The background warming trend because of climate change has increased the likelihood of warmer conditions particularly since the 1950s, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
For instance, of the 10 Junes with at least 10 days of 20-degree weather, four have been since 2001.
Next week’s cold snap will be welcomed at the alpine resorts, particularly in Victoria where most mountain tops, such as at Mount Buller, are snow-free.
Skiers at NSW resorts have fared better, with another dusting of snow likely this weekend, Weatherzone’s Mr Dutschke said.
“The best chance of significant snow will be early next week when a stronger cold front comes through,” he said.
Sydney’s sunny weather means June is likely to be another month with below-average rainfall.
Weatherzone is owned by Fairfax Media, publisher of this website.